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Using Systems Thinking and System Dynamics Modeling to Understand Rebound Effects

机译:使用系统思维和系统动力学建模来了解反弹效应

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摘要

Processes leading to an increase of demand for a resource as a consequence of increasing the efficiency of using this resource in production or consumption are known as (direct) rebound effects. Rebound effects at micro and macro levels tend to offset the reduction in resource consumption enabled by progress in efficiency. Systems thinking and modeling instruments such as causal loop diagrams and System Dynamics can be used to conceptualize the structure of this complex phenomenon and also to communicate model-based insights. In passenger transport, the rebound effect can be invoked by increased cost efficiency (direct economic rebound) and/or increase in speed (time rebound). In this paper we review and compare two existing models on passenger transport—including a model on the role of information and communication technology—with regard to the feedback loops used to conceptualize rebound effects.
机译:由于提高了在生产或消费中使用此资源的效率而导致对资源需求增加的过程称为(直接)反弹效应。微观和宏观层面的反弹效应往往会抵消效率进步带来的资源消耗减少。系统思维和建模工具(例如因果图和系统动力学)可用于概念化此复杂现象的结构,还可用于传达基于模型的见解。在客运中,反弹效应可以通过提高成本效率(直接经济反弹)和/或提高速度(时间反弹)来调用。在本文中,我们就用于概念化回弹效应的反馈回路进行了回顾和比较,研究了两个现有的客运模型(包括有关信息和通信技术作用的模型)。

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